The race in the National League East has heated up and will be a dogfight the rest of the way. The Marlins took the early lead but were over-taken by Philadelphia for most of the first half of the season. New York has over-taken both of them by finally playing up to their capabilities. Now, only a few games separate all three teams. They all have trouble areas on their respective teams that could keep each of them out of the post season.
To the extent they are able to overcome those weak areas will go a long way in determining whether they go to the post season.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies have had problems scoring runs on a consistent basis. Even though Ryan Howard has been very productive hitting home-runs and driving in runs, but is only hitting in the .230’s. Chase Utley struggled after the All Star break, and is now starting to come around. He has still been very productive, (31 home-runs, 85 RBI), but he threatened to run away with the MVP award in the National League in the first half.
It is no surprise that they started having problems at the plate when he tailed off. Jimmy Rollins has been injured and has not performed up to his MVP status. That has hurt as well. Hitting .258 with only 8 home runs is below his standards. Jason Werth has done a pretty good job, but I believe this team misses Aaron Rowand. He got a lot of big hits for them last year, and they miss his clutch bat.
With their ballpark and the talent they have they should turn it around. The pitching is another matter. For the first half of the year their bullpen statistically was the best in the National League, but they have been vulnerable there of late. They cannot afford that because they have some serious issues with their starting pitching, and if they over use their bullpen that would be disastrous.
The pressure is on Cole Hamels and Jamie Moyer to have quality starts almost every time out because Kyle Kendrick and Joe Blanton are wild cards. You don’t know what you are going to get from start to start. If Philadelphia doesn’t win the division it will be because of their starting pitching. Brad Lidge has to stay healthy as well. He is perfect in save opportunities and gives the Phillies a decided advantage over the Mets, who currently don’t have a closer.
Playing .500 ball as they have been lately isn’t going to cut it though.
Florida Marlins
Very few want to acknowledge that the Marlins are in this race to stay. They have fallen behind by five games in the standings, they are by no means out of it. They are currently slumping at the plate and the home run barrage by their infield has slowed down some in the second half of the season.
What also haunts the Marlins is their pitching. They have given up 633 runs so far this year, as opposed to the Mets and the Phillies who have given up 575 and 540 respectively. If Florida’s starters don’t deliver they are in deep trouble.
As the Marlins are finding out that you can’t hit your way out of every situation. The pitching inconsistencies got magnified when their torrid power hitting fell off after the All Star break. Florida is hitting .239 and slugging .398 in August as a team. Only Philadelphia and Cincinnati are hitting worse for average in the same time period.
If Florida’s bats don’t get hot soon they will find themselves out of the race. As it stands now New York and Philadelphia are very streaky and can be caught, but time is running out on the Marlins.
New York Mets
The Mets have taken over first place in the division with their stellar play in the second half. In spite of a rash of injuries to their pitching staff (Billy Wagner and John Maine) they continue to be one of the best teams in the National League over the last two months.
One reason has been the turnaround at the plate of Carlos Delgado. He has hit for power, and in key situations, which has taken the heat off of David Wright and Jose Reyes. When Delgado has it going their line-up is very formidable.
The biggest problem for New York is their very leaky bullpen. Aaron Heilman has been a disaster, and Duaner Sanchez has not been the same coming back from injury last year. Billy Wagner may not be able to close a game for the rest of the season, and the rest are up and down at best.
This is the biggest hurdle the Mets have to jump over. If you can’t depend on your bullpen to hold one or two run leads late in games, you are in trouble. It is really amazing that they have been able to overtake Philadelphia considering the amount of games they let get away in the later innings.
This really puts a lot of pressure on the starters to go late into games. The only starter who can be counted on to do that consistently is Johan Santana.
Philadelphia is probably in the best shape to overcome their issues. Their line-up should get hot and carry them at least for a stretch in September. They have a reliable closer, and their bullpen is good enough to get by in their division. They are not a lock, but if their starting pitching holds up they have the best chance.
True or not, the perception now is that the Phillies are the better all around team, even if they have not played up to their capabilities. They can’t count on New York handing it to them like last year, they have to go out and win it.
Florida will have to count on the Mets and Phillies coming down a bit, and their bats heating up to the level they were on before the All Star break. Short of that happening I don’t think they will be there at the end.
It just doesn’t make sense that New York can hold up untill the end of the season with their bull pen in shambles. Relief pitching is too important in this day and age to operate with one that actually puts confidence in the opposing team when they are called upon. They can hit, and their starting pitchers as a group are good enough. It will be a minor miricle in my view if they make it to the post season.
The Mets will have to perform well when they play Philadelphia head to head, and pad their record against teams like Atlanta and Washington if they want to put themselves in position to win the division.