December 28, 2008 by editor.

This is exactly what the NFL envisioned when they expanded the playoff format, realigned the divisions, and made it easier for players to change teams.  Playoff spots are still there to be had on the last week of the season, parity abounds, and there are great story lines.  This is what separates the NFL brand from the other major sports.  Every game is immensely important because the season is short, and division games count twice as much.

Let’s take a look at some of the key games this weekend:

Dolphins at Jets

Miami has all the momentum coming into this game knowing that if they win, they are in the playoffs, and would tie them with the 1999 Colts for the biggest two season turnaround in NFL history.   

Chad Pennington was jettisoned out of New York and thrown on the scrap heap when the Jets signed Brett Favre.  Now Pennington has a chance to put drive the stake in the Jet’s heart by eliminating them from the playoffs and getting his team in. 

Pennington has been more clutch than Brett Favre, as he has been making more plays in the last four games.  We would have thought that Favre would be the one to will the Jets across the finish line, but that hasn’t happened. 

To be fair, the Jet defense has been bad the last four games against sub par competition.  They haven’t put a lot of pressure on opposing quarterbacks and can’t consistently stop the run.

Pennington has managed the games well and hasn’t made the big mistakes.  The Dolphin defense was victimized by the Chiefs last week for almost 500 yards, and they have a couple of injury issues as well, but they have been the better team the last month.

With all the money the Jets spent in the off-season expectations were high.  You can’t help but feel that this game has the same feel as the New York Met’s final games the last two years.  That choking feeling.  If they don’t at least win this last game at home, in all probability someone (players, coaches) will pay the price.

New York will have to run the ball effectively using Thomas Jones and Favre will have to make a couple of plays off of that.  It is obvious they can’t depend on Favre to win the game by himself.  He is not that quarterback anymore.  Miami should be able to run the ball, and they need to force Favre into making critical errors.  The obvious choice here would be to think Pennington gets his revenge and Miami makes the playoffs, right?

Jets 24 - Miami 23

Jaguars at Ravens

The Baltimore Ravens may be in the best spot of any team trying to get to the playoffs.  All they have to do is beat a disappointing and demoralized Jacksonville team that hasn’t met expectations this year.

Jacksonville will try to run the ball against a Ravens defense that won’t let you run it effectively, and Gerrard won’t be good enough in the passing game to overcome a group that is hungry for a playoff spot.  Flacco and the Ravens should be able to secure this game relatively easily, as long as they don’t get sloppy and turn the ball over.

Jacksonville has been so0 disappointing, they may have to start over again and gut the team after the season.

Ravens 20 - Jaguars 9

Cowboys at Eagles

Both of these teams had lofty aspirations at the beginning of the season, especially the Cowboys.  They were supposed to contend for the Super Bowl, but it is possible for both teams to miss the playoffs if Philadelphia wins.

Dallas just has to win to get in, but they have been so inconsistent the last four games you don’t know which team will show up.  Tony Romo has struggled and made bad throws under pressure against the Steelers and Ravens.  He has a history of playing his worst football in December, and hasn’t done enough this year to dispel that notion.

The Cowboy defense has played well for the most part lately, with the exception of the last quarter of the Ravens game.  They will need to make the Eagles into a one dimensional team by taking away their running game and then attack Donovan McNabb.  The Eagles chances of getting in are slim, and they will know by the time they play if they have a chance or not.

They need for Tampa Bay to lose and either Minnesota or Chicago to lose for them to have a shot.  They could have controlled their own destiny by beating the Redskins, but their offense struggled and they lost.

If the Eagles don’t make it, speculation begins immediately concerning Andy Reid’s and McNabb’s future with the team.  Even if Philladelphia knows their going home for the new year, they will have enough motivation knowing they can send the Cowboys home as well, so they won’t roll over.

I believe Romo’s December swoons will continue.

Eagles 27 - Cowboys 24

Giants at Vikings

The Vikings will try again to clinch a playoff spot after they stumbled against the Falcons at home in their last game.  The big advantage they have is that New York has wrapped up home field field advantage through out the playoffs, so the question is how long will they go with their starters?

The Vikings need to have the right answer to their own question.  How many times will Adrian Peterson fumble on Sunday.  The answer better be none if they want to play the following week.  Minnesota has had four chances at play-in games in recent history and have failed each time.

Even without Brandon Jacobs, the Giants still have a potent running game, and they will need it against the stingy Viking run defense.  I wouln’t put my faith in Minnesota in anything called a play in game.

Giants 24 - Vikings 17

Broncos at Chargers

This game will be heated and hotly contested.  The two young gun quarterbacks don’t like each other, the teams don’t like each other, and the Broncos are on the verge of completing one of the worst collapses in NFL history.  No one would have thought the Chargers would be in a position to punch their ticket to the playoffs with a win over Denver this week, but Denver has helped make it possible for them.

The Broncos led by three games with just three to go and have not been able to close the deal, while the Chargers continue to play inspired football and defy the odds by coming from behind, fighting, and clawing their way to victories.  San Diego is playing now like many anticipated they would play all year.

Phillip Rivers has been clutch as he has led his team on this run.  He leads the NFL in passer rating and touchdown passes.  Jay Cutler has been impressive this year as well, but the Bronco defense has been sub-par all season and can’t be relied on the get consistent stops.

I look for the Chargers to pressure Cutler and force a couple of mistakes.  San Diego is hoping for vintage performances from L.T., Rivers, and Antonio Gates.  They will be at home, they have the momentum, and they have the will.  I don’t think they will be denied.  It will take a herculean effort from Cutler to get this win on the road.  Denver will have to put up a lot of points and get some turnovers to avert disaster in this game.

The Chargers will win this one and be a very dangerous team in the tournament.

Chargers 31 - Broncos 21

Lions at Green Bay

This game will be watched because of its historical significance.  The Lions will mercifully end their season on Sunday, and will end it without a win.  Green Bay, who hasn’t had much to cheer about this year, doesn’t want to be the only team to lose to Detroit, so they will play hard and try to finish on a good note.

Their defense has been non existent, and even though Aaron Rodgers has been OK, they can’t seem to put everything together for a whole game.  At least they are better then Detroit, who has no quarterback, an ineffective running attack, a defense that scares no one, and a front office that should have been broken up years ago.  Move over Tampa Bay, you will have company after Sunday.

Packers 28 - Lions 17

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December 21, 2008 by editor.

There was a power vacuum left at the top of the women’s rankings when Justine Henin retired earlier this year, and we all wondered who would step up and be the next dominant number one on the WTA.  Truth be told, we go into 2009 with the same question.  There are many suitors, but for the first time in a long time the top spot is wide open for whoever wants to step up and take it.

Jelena Jankovic finished the year as the number one ranked player on the women’s player, but you can’t help but wonder whether she really believes she is the best.  She is still without a grand slam, and it makes one wonder if she is number one because of the quantity of tournaments played, as opposed to the quality of her victories.

Jankovic won in Rome on the clay for her first title of the season, and she routinely goes deep into all the draws, but the majors have been her undoing.  The feeling among the tennis pundits, fans and media alike is that your number one ranking should have some (at least one) Grand Slam attached to it.

I am not saying she didn’t have good results or win titles.  She had nice tournament wins in Beijing, Stuggart, and Moscow, all on the hard courts, to go along with her win on clay in Rome.  She has had sucess, but what is stopping her from breaking through on the big stages?

Jankovic relies on her tennis IQ, finesse, and consistency to overwhelm her opponents rather than power.  The other women at the top of the rankings rely more on power, so if she is matched with a power player late in the draw and they are on their game, she will be at a disadvantage.

This being said, I believe it won’t be long before she breaks though.  She has a good time when she is playing, she is never out of a match, and she plays with confidence and intelligence. 

The one player who probably made the biggest strides in 2008 was Dinara Safina.  She dominated the hard-court season in winning the U.S. Open series, and has consistently contended in most of the tournaments she was in.

Safina matured as the year went on and was in control of her emotions for the most part.  She played with a confidence and determination, winning a number of close matches against quality competition.  She is definitely a contender for the top spot in 2009. 

It will be interesting to see how Maria Sharapova bounces back after missing a good portion of last year with a rotator cuff injury.  She was at number three when she got hurt, and opted not to have surgury.  If her rehab went well and she can serve consistently she will definitely be in the mix.  Some of Sharapova’s shortcomings have been exposed though. 

If she isn’t serving well the other parts of her game go south at times.  She does not move as well as many of the other women on the tour and has to take control of the points early to be effective.  She doesn’t play defensive tennis well.  When her ground game is on, she doesn’t have to play defense.  She simply overwhelms her opponents with her power and precision.  Very few on the WTA can stay in a match with Sharapova when she has everything working.

I would not label her a disappointment, but many pictured Sharapova being number one and dominating the game years ago.  She does have three slams to her credit since 2004 and has plenty of time to get more, but she has either been over-hyped, or mentally doesn’t quite have what it takes to maintain the level of excellence needed to stay number one.

Sharapova needs to develop and expand her game.  She needs to come forward more and become proficient at the net to get cheap points.  That will be a challenge because she is not a very good athlete as far as movement goes.  If she does, then she could find herself back on top of the rankings again.

Venus and Serena Williams continue to be a threat in every slam they play in, and you can’t help but think that they are ones to beat in all the slams, with the possible exception of the French Open.  They are now older than all of the other main contenders on the womens side and it is a testament to them that they are still playing at the level that they are.

They have been much criticized over the years for not playing as much as the other women on tour, for their father, Richard Williams, and for handling their careers their way.  They are outspoken and dance to the beat of their own drum, but after everything that has transpired on the women’s tour in the last six years, the pundits are finally admitting that they got it right.

The wear and tear mentally and physically year after year has taken a toll on many of the players on the tour and have forced top players such as Kim Clijsters and Justine Henin to retire when they were at the top of their games.  The Williams sisters never played hurt and paced themselves throughout each season which is paying dividends now as they are still winning slams and seem to be enjoying themselves. 

Their outside interests also seem to be not only financially rewarding, but mentally therapeutic for them as well.  They have stood the test of time.  There seems to be little doubt that both of them could return to the top spot in 2009.  How can we forget how a sub par and out of shape Serena Williams dismantled Sharapova in the 2007 Australian Open, and how Venus Williams seems to be invincible at Wimbledon.

They have learned to cut down on their unforced errors a little, while still being aggressive and coming forward to finish points.  Serena’s serve is the key to her game.  When serving well she has the best in the business and it sets up her unequalled an powerful ground strokes.  She is better at serving out of more tough spots against top players than any one else. 

Venus’ serve is dangerous as well, but it has been known to fail in the middle of matches.  Her forehand also tends to break down during matches as well, but most of the time she gets it together in time to prevail. 

If you look at the top women on the tour the Williams sisters are still the best athletes, even at this stage in their careers.  With all due respect to the other women, they are still the best all around tennis players on the tour.  Henin was the only player that was consistently beating them, and she is gone.  Venus and Serena, and rightfully so, may be more geared up for the majors more than anything else.  Cementing their legacy by adding to their Grand Slam totals may trump getting the number one ranking.  Who can argue with them if that is the case?  We tend to measure the greatness of the players by how many slams they win any way.

If Serena is serious about getting results and commits herself to being number one, I believe she will get there, hands down.  Injuries and apathy could be the only things that slow the sisters down in 2009.

It is hard to figure out Ana Ivanovic.  It is obvious she has the game and the ground strokes to play with, and defeat anyone.  She has proven that, but her mental colapse after winning the French and losing the finals in Australia has to make you think.  Breaking through at a slam is one thing.  Being number one and staying there when the bulls-eye is on your back is something else.  The pressure of being in the spotlight is not easy for everyone to handle.  Some thrive on it and it doesn’t affect their games, but if you can’t you can easily lose your nerve and fold under the pressure of expectations.

Ivanovic is a great tennis player, has a great personality and graciously put everything in perspective after her early round defeats in the majors.  Her over-all game and tennis smarts during the matches give her the ability to beat the Williams’ and Sharapovas of the world, but until she proves she can get to the top and stay there, she won’t be a favorite in my book to maintain a number one ranking.

Elena Dementieva and Svetlana Kuznetsova are solid top ten players, and should stay there because their consistent play and the fact that they play a lot, but they are not serious contenders for the top spot.  Kuznetsova has had problems breaking through in key matches in the slams, and even though Dementieva is an excellent athlete, she doesn’t seem to have the goods to win the slams.

I believe four women have a chance to spend most of the year in the top spot.  Keep in mind that doesn’t mean they are the best.  It just means that their results were consistent enough to get the ranking.  Jankovic is a good example of that.

Sharapova has a shot if she is healed, ups her game, improves her movement, and her serve dominates.  Safina has a shot if she builds on what she did this year and works hard to improve every facet of her game.  All she needs to do is take the next step.  Jankovic needs to win a slam to get her confidence going and that will propel her forward.  Serena Williams just needs to put the work in and be prepared.  Nothing will be handed to her so she has to prepare thinking that if she doesn’t she will be defeated by a lesser opponent.  She has to have a sense of urgency if she wants to get back on top and stay there.

They only thing that is sure about 2009 is that there is no clear cut number one or dominant player.  Only time will tell us who is ready to step into that role.

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December 6, 2008 by editor.

As we enter the 2009 Tennis season, the stage is set for one of the most competitive years on the tour, especially on the men’s side.  As 2008 ends it is not clear who has the momentum heading into the new year.

Roger Federer won the last major, which salvaged his year, but it was clear that Rafael Nadal was the clear number one, and not because Federer stumbled.  He took it from him with his stellar play.  Nadal has managed to do what Federer and Djokavic have not been able to do in the past year and a half.  Consistently get better on the hard courts and grass courts.  That is a tribute to his coach, Toni Nadal, (known as uncle Toni).

Instead of just dominating on clay only, he dominated on the other surfaces as well.  The question is just how good can Nadal be?  If he is still getting better, then the rest of the field has something to worry about.  I for one, didn’t think that Nadal could take Federer down on grass, and it remains to be seen if Nadal can raise his game to a level where he can win majors on the hard courts.

If he can there is no telling how many majors he can win.  We have to keep in mind that the brand of Tennis Nadal plays is not easy on his body.  His strength is his speed and range, and that causes him to retrieve and hit a lot of balls that the other men on tour would not get too.  The constant stopping and sliding on all the surfaces, including the hard courts takes a heavy toll on your joints and hips.  

Leyton Hewitt played that way for most of his career and as a result he is battling a hip injury that could hamper him the rest of his career.

It is obvious that Federer wants his number one ranking back, and he wants to begin the season healthy, unlike his 2008 season.  I believe this year will tell us whether he is on the decline, or if he has found a way to regroup, reinvent his game and take it to a higher level.  Truly exceptional  athletes do that, ala Tiger Woods and Michael Jordan.  Nadal has upped his, now Federer needs to up his. 

There are two other men at the top that will push Nadal and Federer.  Novak Djokovic won the year end championships and served notice that he will not stand by and watch Nadal and Federer dominate the tour.  His season got off to a good start in 2008 as he won the Australian Open, beating Federer in the process.  He seemed poised to do great things, but was never able to build on it and get the results he was looking for until the season ending championships.

He is ranked number three, and if Federer is not careful Djokovic will pass him and be number two.  He is only ten points behind, which is nothing.  Andy Murray rounds out the top four and is the third of the trio that is trying to unseat Federer and bring in a new era tennis.  Murray has matured and came into his own in 2008.  He got good results at Wimbledon, and followed that up with a finals appearance at the U.S. Open.  He is getting better and has proved he has the game to duke it out with Nadal, Federer and Djokovic.

At times Murray seems to be his own worst enemy, but he has matured and is frustrating his opponents with his match strategy and deceptive speed and athleticism.  These four men, baring injury will be at the top of the tennis world in 2009, we just don’t know in what order.  Wimbledon will decide how the season goes for Roger Federer.  If he can come back and win it, and win the U.S. Open again, he will serve notice that he is not going anywhere.  He also has to start the season healthy and not get knocked out so many tournaments early, which happened a lot in 2008. 

If Nadal wins Wimbledon, it will solidify his claim to the number one ranking and serve notice to the other young guns that the road to the top goes through him now.  No one beats him on clay, and if he wins two majors no one will catch him.  Djokovic needs to successfully defend his Australian Open title to make a statement.  If he does that he will jump Federer in the standings.  He also needs to be injury free, and show evidence that his game is getting better.  Murray needs to keep improving and know that he can beat anyone on the tour.  As long as he doesn’t lose confidence he will be fine.

I predict that Nadal will finish number one, Federer will be number two, with Djokovic and Murray at three and four respectfully. 

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