January 17, 2009 by editor.

The Baltimore Ravens have specialized in forcing their opponents into mistakes that give them a clear path to victory.  That has been accentuated in their two playoff games versus the Dolphins and Titans.  That has been their recipe for success.

Pittsburgh knows good and well that they cannot turn the ball over and hope to beat them.  The Steelers trailed in both of the games they played against Baltimore, and that forces you to take chances, which is exactly where the Ravens want you.  The Steelers came out on top barely in both games, but you can’t count on doing that every time against defense as good as Baltimore’s is.

It will be bitter cold in Pittsburgh Sunday night, and this will really be a throw back game that is what the NFL is all about.  There is no doubt that a mistake in a crucial situation will decide this game as points will be difficult to come by.

The Ravens don’t ask Joe Flacco to do a lot.  They rely on their running game, their defense giving them field position, and creating turnovers.  Ben Roethlisberger will have to be mindful of where Ed Reed is at all times when he drops back, and he has to get rid of the ball to eliminate the chance of a fumble. 

Baltimore has some injury issues to deal with at key positions that may be a factor.  Terrell Suggs, the Ravens Pro Bowl linebacker may play, but is not at one hundred percent, and their starting corner-back, Samari Rolle probably won’t play.  If Suggs can’t play or is ineffective that will be huge in this game.

Suggs is a great athlete that makes plays all over the field and helps disrupt everything that the opposing offences want to do.  He gets after the quarterback, plays the screens about as well as you can, has cover skills, and is a perfect compliment for Ray Lewis.  It will be easier for the Steelers to run the ball if Suggs is not in the game.

Le’Ron McClain is dinged up as well, but will play.  The Steelers are pretty healthy, so they have the edge in that area.  What will probably decide this game is the performance of Pittsburgh’s offensive line.  That is the one area of their team that has been weak this year.  If they can’t give Big Ben a little time to get the ball down-field, it will be a long day for Steeler fans.

If they don’t show up, that means sacks, interceptions, and points for the Ravens.  If they play like they have been over the last month, Pittsburgh should win.  The Steelers need to do what they do best on defense.  Stuff the Ravens running attack and force Flacco to beat them with his arm.  Flacco is good, and a budding star, but he is still a rookie.  Pittsburgh has proven that they can get to him and cause turnovers in their previous meetings, so it will be just as important for him not to turn the ball over either.

The Steelers have shown they can come back from a double digit lead against Baltimore.  Baltimore can’t say that, and they are not equiped to be able to do it.  This will be a close, physical dog-fight, but unless the Ravens defense scores points, The Steelers will win.  They are the better team.

Steelers 17  Ravens 10

The Arizona Cardinals have found their defense this post season and look like a completely different team.  Playoff football is all about getting stops and being opportunistic on defense, and that is what Arizona has done.

They will have their hands full with Donavan McNab and the Eagles.  He is not a rookie, and he is not Jake Delhomme.  McNab has come up big against two of the best defenses in the NFC, and that leads me to believe he will not shrink in this game.

He has made the right plays at the right time this post season and he has a defense that has been styfling opposing offenses.  The Cardinals have done it on both sides of the ball as well, and Kurt Warner is playing the kind of football that is reminding everyone why he was a winning Super Bowl quarterback. 

It helps that he has Larry Fitzgerald and company to throw to, and they have lit it up this post-season.  How the Eagles choose to defend the Cardinal’s passing game will go a long way towards deciding this game.

The Eagles are good at pressuring quarterbacks, and Warner is not very mobile.  I don’t anticipate Warner having a lot of time to get the ball deep down-field often.  I expect the Cardinals to put in a game plan that tries to take advantage of Philadelphia’s aggressiveness on defense.  If they are successful, then they have a good chance to win.

Arizona’s defense has really been one of the big surprises of this post-season.  They have done a great job stopping the run, and pressuring their opponents into making errors in the passing game after under-achieving badly in the regular season.  Stopping an Eagles running game that is mostly absent anyway should not be much of a problem.

Shutting down the Eagles air attack is a different matter.  McNab spreads the ball around very well, and if his offensive line gives him time he is capable of carving up Arizona’s secondary.  Arizona is a different team then when they played Philadelphia earlier in the year, but I still think the Eagles will prevail.

Eagles 28  Cardinals 20

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January 3, 2009 by editor.

We have finally arrived at the most exciting weekend of the NFL season.  Single elimination games on Saturday and Sunday mean that Wild Card weekend is finally here.

Interestingly enough, three of the visiting teams are favored.  Given the parity in the league, that is not surprising, and it makes for some intriguing match-ups.

Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals

If you look at the way Arizona has played all year, it would seem like this game sets up perfectly for them.  They were horrible on the road and looked unstoppable at home.  They have an experienced quarterback that has won a Super Bowl and stud receivers.

They are playing against a rookie quarterback in his first playoff game.  With all this, Arizona has glaring issues that can’t be ignored.  They can’t stop the run, and few teams run it as well as the Falcons. 

The Cardinals have feasted on the poor teams in their division.  When they have played good teams, they have faltered badly. 

In the last six weeks, they have lost at home to the Giants and Vikings, and were totally destroyed on the road by New England and Philadelphia.

The Falcons, on the other hand, played in a better division and had better results against the better teams.  They pound the ball with Michael Turner, and Matt Ryan has been clutch at quarterback making plays time and time again. 

They are a physical football team, and that is where I believe they will beat the Cardinals. 

Atlanta’s rushing stats have been better at home but I think they have enough to beat Arizona.  Matt Ryan is no ordinary rookie, and will not make critical mistakes.

Falcons 27, Cardinals 23

Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Chargers

The Chargers have played thrilling and inspired football to squeak their way into the playoffs and have momentum.  Phillip Rivers has been nothing short of spectacular, and it is not surprising to see him putting the team on his back and getting them to the post-season.

The Colts somehow have flown under the radar.  They have been the best team in the AFC the last eight weeks, and no one can remember the last time they lost.

Peyton Manning is the best quarterback left in the playoffs, and when he is clicking on all cylinders like he is now, there is no stopping them.

The Colts don’t have much of a running game to speak of, but that shouldn’t be much of a problem in sunny San Diego. 

Manning and crew are one of the only good teams in the league that don’t need balance on offense to be successful.  It would hurt them in a bad weather game, but not this week.

The key match-up here is the Charger defense versus the Colts offense.  In their game earlier in the year Indianapolis rushed for 93 yards and beat San Diego. 

The Chargers must stuff the run and make the Colts one-dimensional.  There also needs to be a LaDainian Tomlinson sighting.

Rivers will need to be Superman again along with LT, and their defense will have to be better than it was in their first game if they are to win.  I believe another home team will go down here.

Colts 31, Chargers 20

Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins

Much has been written about the resurgence of the Dolphins and the MVP-caliber season that Chad Pennington has enjoyed.  Their offense is imaginative and diverse.  Their play-calling and coaching is excellent, and they can beat you with the run or the pass.

The big question for them is how will they fare against one of the most physical and intimidating defenses in the league.  Pennington is not very mobile and could be a sitting duck against Ray Lewis and the boys. 

Miami will have to stay out of third-and-long situations so they are not at the mercy of the Ravens defense.

The Dolphins will have to use their entire offensive arsenal to keep Baltimore off balance.  They will have to find something that works, whether it is the Wildcat formation or something else.  This will be a tough game for them to win.

Fortunately for the Ravens they have not had to depend on their rookie quarterback, Joe Flacco, to make plays for them all the time for them to be effective.

Their suffocating defense keeps them in the game and they make plays off of their ground attack and play action.

Their defense is very proficient at scoring on opponent interceptions and fumbles as well.

I don’t see Ronnie Brown and Rickie Williams having a lot of success on the ground, and the Ravens will not let Pennington sit back and pick them apart. 

The Dolphins will have to force Flacco to make critical mistakes for them to have a chance.  As a rookie, he may be susceptible to the pressure.

Ravens 23,  Dolphins 10

Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings

The Eagles are on a roll right now.  Donovan McNabb is playing with newfound confidence and the defense is playing lights out.  Their third-ranked defense is shutting down the run, sacking quarterbacks and suffocating receivers.

This means that McNabb doesn’t have to be spectacular, just efficient.  They will have to be good this week to stop Adrian Peterson. 

Everything begins and ends for the Vikings with the threat of Peterson running the ball.  If Philadelphia can’t corral him, it will be a long day for them.  Over the last seven games, they have only given up 3.1 yards per carry.

The Vikings are not slouches on defense, either.  They can line up and stop anyone.  They have impressive wins this year over Carolina, Arizona, and the Giants (New York didn’t have much to play for at that point).  They lost to Atlanta, but committed a ton of turnovers to help them.

The X-factor for the Vikings will be how Tarvaris Jackson plays.  He will not be a sitting duck for the Eagle defense.

If Philadelphia applies the pressure, he can make plays with his legs.  That could be a problem for the Eagles.  Jackson also has the propensity to make turnovers when pressured as well, so a lot hinges on how well he plays.

Philadelphia’a running game has to at least be average.  It has to be good enough so the Vikings can’t tee off on McNabb.  They can’t be one-dimensional, or their season will be over. 

Brian Westbrook and Correll Buckhalter will have to be good running and catching the ball.

The Vikings played their way into the playoffs, but the Eagles have the momentum and have been playing better.  I’m going with the Eagles’ playoff experience and defense to get them over the top.

Eagles 23 , Vikings 20

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